Sunday, August 24, 2003
...Down 7 points with 5 weeks to go
Well, here we are in the homestretch, and the Payolahs have surged to an 86-79 lead in the race for the pennant. Lets look at how things match up down the stretch.
Payolahs Status:
Payolahs lose Cliff Floyd for rest of year. Eric Young dealt from Milwaukee to Giants where SB attempts should decrease. Livan continues to carry the Payolahs pitching staff while they hold their breath over Curt Schilling's latest tweak. Still, pitching staff of 4 starters, 4 relievers and 1 closer could fade in wins down the stretch, though Livan, Schilling & Russ Ortiz have been gathering wins like crazy.
Elephants Status:
Offense keeps humming along, but a Reggie Sanders trade could wreak havoc. Ben Sheets got lit up, and then only pitched 1 inning before a tweak pulled him out, we'll see how he goes on Sunday. His loss would hurt. Wilson Alvarez has been a pleasant surprise. Mark Lincoln has completely sucked as a closer, and Rod Beck will lose closer role if Trevor Hoffman comes back in September. Elephants also currently only have 4 starters, but have Redman and Oswalt available on the bench. Javier Vazquez has been dominant but Kevin Millwood has been shaky.
September Roster Expansion:
Payolahs have full-timers Rich Aurilia and Alex Cora and possibly Fred McGriff (but who can tell what his status is), and part-timers Marcus Scutaro, Joe Vitiello, Migeul Ojeda, Kelly Stinnett, Jeffrey Hammonds and Doug Glanville. Shane Reynolds could join the pitching staff.
Elephants have Randall Simon, Tyler Houston and Abraham Nunez available to spark the offense. The strength here is the Elephants pitching bench which currently contains Mark Redman, Roy Oswalt, Mike Dejean, Andy Ashby, Salomon Torres, John Franco, Mark Guthrie and Shawn Estes. Oswalt may be the key to an Elephants comeback.
Standings Evaluation:
HR: Elephants 12 back of Varks; Payolahs 14 back of Elephants and 9 up on Cervezas. Cervezas addition of Mondesi & Ventura and Payolahs loss of Floyd may cost the Payolahs a point here. Varks should be able to hold off Elephants.
RBI: Look pretty static, though there's a chance Varks could gain 33 RBIs on Elephants to take a point away.
SB: Payolahs 4 back of Ache Men but Juan Pierre and Eric Young have slowed of late. Will be tight, but likely another point for the Payolahs.
AVG:Elephants .0007 behind Cervezas and should gain the point. Payolahs .008 behind Elephants and only .0009 ahead of Varks and could lose a point.
Offense net: Payolahs gain 1pt or at worst lose 1pt. Elephants gain 1 pt or at worst do nothing.
W: Payolahs 3 up on HoDogs and 6 up on Elephants, who are 1 up on Cervezas. HoDogs also only have 4 starters. Interesting here.
Saves: Payolahs(Smoltz) 2 up on Benedicts(Wagner,Worrell) and 8 up on fast-moving Cervezas(Gagne,Kolb). Elephants(Mesa,Beck,Lincoln) 5 back of Rynochasers(Biddle) and 6 back of HoDogs(Mantei,Speier). 2-4 points might be gained by the Elephants here, but its gonna take Lincoln stepping up or Beck keeping his job to keep it from only being 1-2 points.
ERA: Payolahs .07 up on HoDogs, .17 up on Varks, .45 up on Elephants who are .07 up on Keteers, and .13 up on Benedicts. Elephants are on the rise here, though with Vazquez, Redman, Millwood, Oswalt, Sheets, Alvarez.
WHIP:Payolahs .021 up on Keteers, .041 up on Varks. Elephants .002 behind HoDogs, .018 behind Benedicts and .020 behind Varks. Another area for 2-3 points of gain for the Elephants.
Pitching is where Elephants could make up the ground, but they will need the saves, and a big move in the hard to predict wins. ERA and ratio gains are a must. One bad outing could end the season. Things are looking good for Payolah fans...
posted by Mariner Optimist 2:19 AM
Monday, August 11, 2003
Elephants unable to deal keepers
The Elephants kept the trade lines hot until the very end, but were unable to help the team despite offering very good keepers like Roy Oswalt (10B), Scott Podsednik (14B) and Jesse Foppert(NC).
Oswalt received offers of Ponson straight up, and Borowski/Casey for Oswalt/Burnitz. The Borowski/Casey deal was tempting, but it was decided that Burnitz HR might be needed to hold off Payolahs, and while waiting to hear about counter offer without Burnitz, Borowski was sent to the Varks for Placido Polanco of all people. This deal may be the one that puts the Varks over the top, or at the least, costs the Elephants their 4-peat. Oswalt for one of Woody Williams, Rocky Biddle, Dontrelle Willis. Even Oswalt for Miguel Batista + Ryan Wagner was turned down by the Woodies. This for a pitcher who in 100 injury plagued innings this year has still managed a 3.22 ERA and 1.256 WHIP.
Podsednik offers to the Cervezas and Benedicts got rejected due to the stratification of the steals category, and the tight battle these two teams are in for fourth place.
So the Elephants will go with what they got. Podsednik will likely be riding the pine, as the Elephants have the Coleman Cup wrapped up, and will likely be atop batting average soon, and that spot can be used to provide some HR/RBI. Oswalt is likely out until at least September, but while surgery has not been ruled out, it looks like he will pitch again, and the Elephants will have him active for those starts. It will be interesting to see what happens.
By not making a deal, the Elephants may come up short in 2003, but they look to once again be in the mix for 2004. They look set on the starting pitching side with Oswalt(10B), Millwood(15B), Vazquez(20A), Redman(5A) and Sheets(13D04) all priced to keep. Look for some rebuilding of the offense in the offseason around Podsednik(14B), Burnitz(14A), and Jimenez(5B). Not as strong as year's past, but still a solid core of players for under $100.
posted by Mariner Optimist 1:02 PM
DCBA Standings at the Deadline
With trading and FAABing complete for the year, here are the standings for the stretch run.
STANDINGS For The Dixie Chicken Baseball Association
Through games of 08.10.03
Team HR RBI SB AVG W SV ERA RAT TOT +/-
Payolahs 10.0 9.0 9.0 8.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 82.0 1.5
Elephants 11.0 12.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 7.0 9.0 8.0 80.0 -0.5
Varks 12.0 11.0 7.0 10.0 7.0 4.0 11.0 12.0 74.0 2.0
Cervezas 9.0 10.0 5.0 12.0 9.0 10.0 5.0 3.0 63.0 1.5
Benedicts 8.0 8.0 1.0 9.0 8.0 11.0 7.0 9.0 61.0 -1.0
Ho-Dogs 3.0 6.0 11.0 2.0 11.0 8.5 10.0 7.0 58.5 0.5
Rynochasers 6.0 5.0 3.0 6.0 5.0 8.5 6.0 6.0 45.5 -0.5
Ache Men 7.0 4.0 10.0 7.0 3.5 5.5 3.0 2.0 42.0 1.5
Keteers 5.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.5 3.0 8.0 11.0 37.5 -2.0
Boards 2.0 3.0 8.0 4.0 6.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 32.0 0.5
Heads 4.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 1.0 5.5 1.0 1.0 30.5 -1.5
Woodies 1.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 18.0 -2.0
STANDINGS BY CATEGORY
HOME RUNS RBIS
Team Total Week Pts +/- Team Total Week Pts +/-
Varks 198 14 12.0 0.0 Elephants 786 34 12.0 0.0
Elephants 184 12 11.0 0.0 Varks 748 51 11.0 0.0
Payolahs 175 9 10.0 0.0 Cervezas 673 23 10.0 0.0
Cervezas 162 9 9.0 0.0 Payolahs 635 22 9.0 0.0
Benedicts 159 9 8.0 0.0 Benedicts 593 25 8.0 0.0
Ache Men 150 7 7.0 0.0 Heads 579 24 7.0 0.0
Rynochasers 139 6 6.0 0.0 Ho-Dogs 548 14 6.0 0.0
Keteers 125 4 5.0 0.0 Rynochasers 543 18 5.0 0.0
Heads 121 7 4.0 1.0 Ache Men 538 27 4.0 0.0
Ho-Dogs 120 2 3.0 -1.0 Boards 500 11 3.0 0.0
Boards 112 0 2.0 0.0 Keteers 431 9 2.0 0.0
Woodies 77 4 1.0 0.0 Woodies 358 16 1.0 0.0
STOLEN BASES AVERAGE
Team Total Week Pts +/- Team Total Week Pts +/-
Elephants 134 8 12.0 0.0 Cervezas .2836 .2823 12.0 0.0
Ho-Dogs 101 3 11.0 0.0 Elephants .2809 .2667 11.0 0.0
Ache Men 86 4 10.0 0.0 Varks .2737 .2750 10.0 1.0
Payolahs 80 6 9.0 0.5 Benedicts .2729 .2526 9.0 -1.0
Boards 76 2 8.0 -0.5 Payolahs .2722 .2629 8.0 0.0
Varks 73 2 7.0 0.0 Ache Men .2690 .2647 7.0 1.0
Heads 65 4 6.0 0.0 Rynochasers .2688 .2581 6.0 1.0
Cervezas 53 3 5.0 0.0 Heads .2684 .2350 5.0 -2.0
Woodies 48 0 4.0 0.0 Boards .2664 .2990 4.0 0.0
Rynochasers 40 0 3.0 0.0 Keteers .2653 .2857 3.0 0.0
Keteers 37 0 2.0 0.0 Ho-Dogs .2617 .2622 2.0 1.0
Benedicts 31 1 1.0 0.0 Woodies .2612 .2447 1.0 -1.0
WINS SAVES
Team Total Week Pts +/- Team Total Week Pts +/-
Payolahs 69 4 12.0 0.0 Payolahs 62 2 12.0 0.0
Ho-Dogs 63 4 11.0 0.5 Benedicts 58 2 11.0 0.0
Elephants 62 3 10.0 -0.5 Cervezas 46 6 10.0 1.5
Cervezas 58 3 9.0 0.0 Ho-Dogs 44 4 8.5 0.0
Benedicts 57 4 8.0 0.0 Rynochasers 44 0 8.5 -1.5
Varks 55 4 7.0 0.0 Elephants 39 1 7.0 0.0
Boards 48 1 6.0 0.0 Heads 28 2 5.5 0.5
Rynochasers 45 1 5.0 0.0 Ache Men 28 0 5.5 -0.5
Keteers 44 2 3.5 0.0 Varks 24 4 4.0 1.0
Ache Men 44 2 3.5 0.0 Keteers 23 0 3.0 -1.0
Woodies 41 0 2.0 0.0 Boards 18 0 2.0 0.0
Heads 35 0 1.0 0.0 Woodies 7 0 1.0 0.0
ERA RATIO
Team Total Week Pts +/- Team Total Week Pts +/-
Payolahs 3.45 2.09 12.0 1.0 Varks 1.260 1.263 12.0 1.0
Varks 3.47 3.38 11.0 -1.0 Keteers 1.261 1.374 11.0 -1.0
Ho-Dogs 3.57 1.98 10.0 0.0 Payolahs 1.263 1.077 10.0 0.0
Elephants 3.85 3.86 9.0 0.0 Benedicts 1.289 1.272 9.0 0.0
Keteers 3.95 4.53 8.0 0.0 Elephants 1.307 1.071 8.0 0.0
Benedicts 3.96 2.38 7.0 0.0 Ho-Dogs 1.320 1.156 7.0 0.0
Rynochasers 4.19 3.05 6.0 0.0 Rynochasers 1.371 1.195 6.0 0.0
Cervezas 4.21 2.92 5.0 0.0 Boards 1.374 1.118 5.0 1.0
Woodies 4.40 3.50 4.0 0.0 Woodies 1.387 1.528 4.0 -1.0
Ache Men 4.51 1.88 3.0 0.0 Cervezas 1.400 1.166 3.0 0.0
Boards 4.55 3.18 2.0 0.0 Ache Men 1.419 1.070 2.0 1.0
Heads 4.62 3.81 1.0 0.0 Heads 1.425 1.341 1.0 -1.0
posted by Mariner Optimist 12:33 PM
Sunday, August 10, 2003
Trade Deadline Deals
Activity between the MLB trading deadline of 8/1 and the DCBA trade deadline of 8/11 is coming in fast and furious. Keep in mind, that teams can only deal 2 players to any other team after the All-Star Break. Here is what happened...
Elephants bolster bench
8/11 11:30am. In a last-minute deal that may pay off handsomely for the Woodies, the Elephants dealt Aaron Boone 21B and Matt Kinney for bench players Ramon Martinez and Tyler Houston.
Varks grab Borowski
8/11 12:30am. Varks grab another much-needed closer for the stretch run, and may have pilfered a great keeper from the Heads, grabbing 10A Joe Borowski along Ty Wigginton for 7A Placido Polanco and Yankee Bret Prinz.
The interesting thing is that the Varks may have gotten the better keeper. Polanco's 10/50/.290/10 career year if it continued out this year would make him a $20 player next year, saving the Heads $13 at the auction table. If Borowski stays a closer, its easy to see him costing more than $23 at next year's auction.
Pennant impact: Could be huge. The Varks will gain two points in saves. This becomes huge if their three-headed closer of Isringhausen, Borowski and Looper can grab 20 saves to catch the Rynochasers, or gain 15 saves on the Elephants.
Elephants spin: Again, the Elephants were in the bidding for Borowski, with a deal centered around Roy Oswalt. But the Elephants balked at sending both Oswalt and Jeromy Burnitz for Borowski & Sean Casey, and in the end, the Heads went to the competition, as they had threatened.
Elephants add Mike Lincoln
8/10 1pm. The Elephants, desperate for saves down the stretch, sent Tomo Okha (6A) to the Rynochasers for 20B Mike Lincoln.
Pennant Race Impact: Saves is the area where the Elephants can most easily help themselves. With Mesa and DeJean currently banished from save opportunities, they are 5-7 saves behind 1-3 standings points. With the Rynochasers one of those teams, this trade should guarantee the Elephants 1 standings point. And perhaps more importantly, it prevents the Elephants from ever starting Tomo Okha down the stretch. Okha has been the most consistently inconsistent starter in the NL this year, and the Elephants have mastered the timing on the bad side. While on the Elephants bench, Okha picked up 4 wins with a 3.69 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 53 innings. As an active Elephant, Okha also has 4 wins, but has brutalized the Elephants with a 5.38 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in 80 innings. Swap those two sets of numbers, and the Elephants would gain six standings points in ERA & WHIP.
Varks land Sidney Ponson
8/10 1pm. Varks send Joe Thurston & Bobby Hill, two former top prospects fallen on hard times to the Keteers for Sidney Ponson. Good deal for the Varks, who essentially give up two NC players whom their teams appear to have given up on, or slated as utility infielders at best.
Pennant Race Impact: Ponson replaces the highly flammable Jason Jennings (4H, 4ER in 1 inning in his last "start") in the Varks rotation, so this should help Kevin immensely. If Ponson is a stud, he could get enough wins to get 2 points in that category easily and maybe pass one or more of the HoDogs/Payolahs/Elephants who are currently 8 or more wins ahead. More likely, he might improve the Varks ERA and WHIP enough to climb to the top of the standings in both, gaining them 3 points, and more importantly, costing the Payolahs 2 points. If the Payolahs lose those two points, this might be the trade that gives the Elephants their 4th straight championship.
Elephants spin: Elephants were offered Ponson for Roy Oswalt straight up, and were wise not to take that deal, as the going price for Ponson is obvioiusly less than a $10 staff ace, no matter what his groin issues are. Elephants offered Jesse Foppert but were told straight up that it was Roy O or no deal. Since Roy O in September could end up outperforming Sidney Ponson in August/September, the Elephants didn't think twice on this one.
Ache Men "Standing Pat"
8/8 4pm.
After numerous emails went unanswered, the Elephants GM Yertle T. Turtle finally broke down and called the Ache Man himself at hope with an offer of Roy Oswalt for Barry Bonds & Wade Miller. Troy's response was a firm, "we are not going to make any trades this year." The inactivity of the Ache Men is one of the bigger mysteries of the trade season, as they have been going nowhere for months, and had the most tradebait available, and have traditionally been major players in the trade market. The Elephants fear this may be a sign that Troy is thinking of hanging up the Ache Men mantle next year, and felt it would be improper to impact the pennant race in his final year. Time (and Troy) will tell...
Trade Deadline costs Payolahs & Elephants
8/1.
With the dust settling on the MLB trade deadline, the top 2 teams in the DCBA were both hurt by trades sending productive players to the American League. The Payolahs lost surprising stud Jose Guillen as he was dealt to the A's. The Payolahs had another loss in closer Armando Benitez, but with their large lead in saves, this is unlikely to affect the Payolahs greatly. The Elephants lost power when Aaron Boone went from the Reds to the Yankees, but may actually gain in batting average as a result, as D'Angelo Jimenez replaces him at 2B. The big winner of these moves seems to be the Varks as they only lost potential September callup Bret Prinz to the Yankees.
posted by Mariner Optimist 2:20 PM
